Should we predict the future?

The BBC reports that US scientists have developed a way of predicting how likely a person is to live beyond the age of 100.

The BBC reports that the predictions are based on 150 genetic ‘signposts’ found in exceptionally long-lived people. The scientific team at Boston University created a mathematical model which takes information from these signposts to work out a person's chance of reaching 100.

This new technology could well have deep implications for society. Policy makers are becoming increasingly aware that our ageing society will present severe challenges in the near future. It is not unrealistic to think that this technology could potentially feature in the debates about these challenges: how long we should work; where we target our resources; how we define old age.

But how should a technology like this be used in debates about our ageing society? If this technology enables us to separate those people more likely to live longer from those who are less likely to, it has the potential to provide a frame for debate. But is this a frame we think is useful for a debate about our ageing society? Should everyone be treated equally regardless of how long they will live?

We’d like to hear your thoughts at the Sciencewise-ERC forum.